Fed Board, Report: Stressed Banks, Evidence from the Largest-Ever Supervisory Review
“Overall, results suggest that banks partly mask risk in supervisory audits, notably on liquid securities that are easier to trade (different from credit), with not only short-term spillovers on asset prices and credit supply, but also with medium-term implications for the real economy (corporate real effects). The results hold important implications for policy. In particular,…
Read MoreAustan Goolsbee, Interview: CNBC
Fed Funds “So Fed’s got a job to maximize employment and stabilize prices, and Fed’s going to do that job. If the credit conditions are doing that job for it, you want to be mindful of it and not be too aggressive.” “We still got several weeks before the FOMC meeting, so I don’t want…
Read MoreMichelle Bowman, Speech: The Consequences of Fewer Banks in the U.S. Banking System
Monetary Policy/Economy were not talked about in this speech. — “In my view, right-sizing regulatory requirements, improving transparency, and supporting regulatory approaches that support new banks are important tools to promote healthy competition and reduce unintended consequences. We need a viable pipeline for the creation of new banks in the United States, and there are…
Read MoreRaphael Bostic, Interview: Reuters (print)
Select quotes from the Reuters article. Fed Funds Recent inflation data, “are consistent with us moving one more time … We’ve got a lot of momentum suggesting that we’re on the path to 2%.” “There’s more to do. I think the next step is going to be to figure out how much more.”
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (4/14/23)
Chicago Fed, Report: Does Not Fit All, Inflation Hedging by Index and Horizon
“There is no one-size-fits-all approach to inflation hedging; the optimal hedge depends on the particular types of prices that an investor is exposed to and at which horizons. Over the last twenty years, we find that commodities and commodity-related stocks and currencies are generally successful in hedging headline consumer inflation, but this mostly seems to…
Read MoreNY Fed, U.S. Economy in a Snapshot – April 2023
“GDP growth was solid in Q4. Consumption and inventories were substantial contributors to growth. Residential investment spending was a large drag on growth, while private nonresidential investment spending was flat.” “Consumer spending in the first two months of Q1 was up substantially over the Q4 average. Real disposable income was also up sharply. Manufacturing activity has…
Read MoreNY Fed, Report: Mitigating the Risk of Runs on Uninsured Deposits: the Minimum Balance at Risk
“The incentives that drive bank runs have been well understood since the seminal work of Nobel laureates Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig (1983). When a bank is suspected to be insolvent, early withdrawers can get the full value of their deposits. If and when the bank runs out of funds, however, the bank cannot pay remaining depositors.…
Read MoreChristopher Waller, Speech/Q&A: Financial Stabilization and Macroeconomic Stabilization, Two Tools for Two Problems
Q&A Segment — Fed Funds “Right. So up until March 10th when SVB failed, the data that was coming in January and February was just extremely hot. The economy was not showing any signs of slowing down. So at that time, I thought that our terminal interest rate, where we might think about stopping, was…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: Inflation (5-year Breakeven)
Fed Board, Report: H.4.1 Statistical Release
“Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks.” “The release presents a balance sheet for each Federal Reserve Bank, a consolidated balance sheet for all 12 Reserve Banks, an associated statement that lists the factors affecting reserve balances of depository institutions, and several other tables presenting information on the…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (4/13/23)
St. Louis Fed, Report: Child Care, Critical to the Economy but Difficult to Access and Afford
“Child care is critical to the nation’s workforce. Yet access to high-quality care is inequitable, and the cost, especially for licensed child care, is steep for many families. Additionally, many parents simply cannot find child care that meets their needs, limiting their ability to work. When the child care sector does not fully meet the…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: YC Spreads (Recession Indicators)
Tom Barkin, Interview: CNBC
Inflation “Well, I certainly think we’re past peak on inflation, but we still have a ways to go. And shelter, you mentioned, it came in at 0.6, which if you multiply by 12 is over 7% year after year. Core services came in at 0.4, which if you multiply that by 12 is about five.…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (4/12/23)
Fed Board, Report: Minutes of the FOMC – March 21-22, 2023
“Several participants noted that, in their policy deliberations, they considered whether it would be appropriate to hold the target range steady at this meeting. They noted that doing so would allow more time to assess the financial and economic effects of recent banking-sector developments and of the cumulative tightening of monetary policy. However, these participants…
Read MoreMary Daly, Speech: Calibrating Policy in an Uncertain Time
Q&A Segment — Inflation “In March, which was the last time we did that, you saw inflation in that number, the median inflation forecast still being above 3%, which is my own forecast. It’ll be a little bit above three.” Fed Funds “Now that that job is done, that phase one is complete, now we…
Read MoreTom Barkin, Speech: Bringing Talent to Small Towns
Monetary Policy/Economy were not talked about in this speech. “One way that I like to frame this challenge is by comparing it to cultivation of employers. Small towns will need to recruit talent the way they recruit companies, which means pursuing four strategies.” “First, just as prospective employers need to hear a compelling pitch, so…
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