James Bullard, Interview: Reuters (print)
Interview transcript is not available. — Recession “Wall Street’s very engaged in the idea there’s going to be a recession in six months or something, but that isn’t really the way you would read an expansion like this … the labor market just seems very, very strong. And the conventional wisdom is that if you…
Read MoreRaphael Bostic, Interview: CNBC
Fed Funds Interview Question: Are you still thinking one and done when it comes to a May interest rate increase? “One, for sure, that’s my baseline for this year. I’ve been at this point for quite some time. The economy still has a lot of momentum and is performing quite strongly and inflation remains too…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (4/18/23)
St. Louis Fed, Report: A State-Level Look at U.S. Labor Market Supply and Demand
“The tight U.S. labor market has been one of the most significant economic stories coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Headline unemployment was 3.4% in January 2023, the lowest rate since April 1969. With output back above pre-pandemic levels, demand for labor is high, and the weight of available evidence suggests that employers are struggling…
Read MoreMichelle Bowman, Speech/Q&A: Considerations for a Central Bank Digital Currency
Q&A Segment – Treasury is the Lead on CBDC “So the US Treasury has been leading a working group to help to further the conversation among the other parts of the administration to have conversations about this. But as I mentioned in my speech, we are very committed to ensuring that we have clear authority…
Read MoreNY Fed, Report: Monitoring Banks’ Exposure to Nonbanks, The Network of Interconnections Matters
“We have documented the potential vulnerabilities of banking institutions to fire sales initiated in the NBFI sector when considering both direct spillovers (fire sales of assets that are also held by banks) and indirect, “second-round” spillovers (fire sales that induce further fire sales by other NBFIs that in turn hurt banks). Our analysis sheds light…
Read MoreNY Fed, Report: Enhancing Monitoring of NBFI Exposure, The Case of Open-End Funds
“These results imply innovative insights for monitoring NBFIs: (a) monitoring of direct exposures may not be sufficient, as risks from indirect channels of exposure can be significant during periods of stress; (b) these exposures are likely heterogeneous across bank holding companies, with the heterogeneity likely driven by differences in business models.” “Of course, the picture…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: 2yr & 10yr Treasury, Fed Funds
Fed Unfiltered, Up to Speed: U.S. Dollar
Fed: “Research and analysis about consumers, their financial experiences, and the communities in which they live inform Federal Reserve policymaking.” – Fed Board Fed Unfiltered: Each week we’ll read through and outline the most relevant information for your decision-making. U.S. Dollar: The CBO analyzes the possibility of the Dollar being overtaken by either the Euro…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Up to Speed: Tutorials Overview
Fed Board, Report: The Role of Wages in Trend Inflation, Back to the 1980s?
“The results show that wages inform estimates of trend inflation. The weight on wages was highest around 1980, drifted down through the 2000s, and returned to its average value from 1976 to 1985 by 2022. This pattern is reminiscent of the pattern in concerns over wage developments in inflation discussions, as the possibility of a…
Read MoreCBO, Report: The U.S. Dollar as an International Currency and Its Economic Effects
“In CBO’s view, the euro and the renminbi are the two currencies most likely to displace the dollar as the primary international currency, but neither is likely to overtake the dollar over the coming decade.55 The main obstacle for the euro is that the euro zone’s economic importance in the global economy (relative to the…
Read MoreCleveland Fed, Reports: Trend Inflation and Implications for the Phillips Curve
“The Economic Commentary highlights three results. First, trend PCE inflation started rising noticeably in 2020, and since the beginning of 2021 trend PCE inflation is measured to be above the historical average of PCE inflation of 3.3 percent (above the long-term inflation target of 2 percent). Second, the Phillips curve slope has moderately increased, implying…
Read MoreTom Barkin, Interview (Q&A): Richmond Association for Business Economics
Video of the Q&A is not yet available. — Overview — In an audience discussion at the Richmond Association for Business Economics on Monday (April 17th), Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said that he wants to see more evidence that U.S. inflation is settling back to the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, and that he’s…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (4/17/23)
St. Louis Fed, Report: How U.S. Import Shipping Costs Vary across Countries and Industries
“We conclude that there is significant heterogeneity in shipping costs across both countries and industries. These findings suggest that changes in international shipping costs following large shocks such as COVID-19 have likely had heterogeneous impacts across import sources and industries: The unprecedented surge of shipping costs has likely had a greater impact on imports from…
Read MoreNY Fed, Report: Financial Fragility without Banks
“Although banks retain a special role in the financial system, which dates back to the 19th century, the crisis of 1772 demonstrates that a sophisticated financial system can thrive and fail without banks. Asset cycles, gambling for resurrection, moral hazard and too-big-to-fail issues persist in a world with or without banks. As happened with the rescue of large…
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