“The all items less food and energy index rose 5.6 percent over the last 12 months.” “Indexes which increased in March include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, airline fares, household furnishings and operations, and new vehicles. The index for medical care and the index for used cars and trucks were among those that decreased over the…

“Rising interest rates have reduced asset prices substantially in the last year, including prices of securities held on bank balance sheets. Un­realized losses reduce a bank’s total value and may negatively influence capital and other financial ratios, with broader implications for banks and the economy.” “We discuss four ways that declining securities valuations may in­fluence…

“Job openings by small businesses rose 59 percent from February 2020 to February 2023. In contrast, job openings by large businesses rose 6 percent over the same period. Small businesses have also seen a sharper increase in their job openings rate over the pandemic: from 4.5 percent in February 2020 to 6.4 percent in February…

“Deposit rates continue to lag the fed funds rate, but the pass-through of policy rates is quickly approaching levels not seen since the early 2000s. The rapid rise in rates has resulted in a fall in overall deposit balances, a tightening of funding ratios, and an increase in non-deposit borrowing. Banks have been managing the…

“Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. The cost-of-living crisis, tightening financial conditions in most regions, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the lingering COVID-19 pandemic all weigh heavily on the outlook. Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2…

“In this article, we investigate the relationship between shipping costs and import price inflation, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. To examine pass-through, we create a dataset combining shipping cost data by country with information on import prices by commodity type and on import volumes by country and commodity type. After creating our measure of shipping…

“We conclude that non-custodial crypto asset mixers are an interesting innovation and demonstrate the power of zero knowledge proofs. They provide honest users with the option not to share their trans­action history publicly and use public blockchains similarly to other electronic payment systems.” “Yet, the risks are real and should also not be underestimated. Some…

“Historians have argued that wars are often decided by attrition instead of “decisive” battles and genius-like generalship. Attrition, in turn, emphasizes the importance of resources in determining the outcomes of war. Hence, I use a model of resource attrition derived from combat models _a la Lanchester (1916) to represent war.” “I consider military conclusions, where…

“Now that 2½ years have passed since the bulk of PPP loans were extended during the pandemic, it’s a good time to revisit the expansionary effects of the PPP and PPP Liquidity Facility. In this Economic Letter, we examined growth in small business lending over this period, both with and without PPP loans. Our results…

“Overall, our analysis suggests that recent increases in real interest rates are likely to be temporary. When inflation is brought back under control, advanced economies’ central banks are likely to ease monetary policy and bring real interest rates back towards pre-pandemic levels. How close to those levels will depend on whether alternative scenarios involving persistently…

“Settlement fails in corporate securities increased sharply in 2022, reaching levels not seen since the 2007-09 financial crisis. As a fraction of trading volume, fails that involve primary dealers reached an all-time high in the week of March 23, 2022. In this post, we investigate the 2022 spike in settlement fails for corporate securities and…