“The methodology in this note shows that over the period including the recent rise in inflation and subsequent monetary policy tightening, asset prices have moved in such a way as to, on average, benefit middle-aged people at the expense of retirees. While we think these results are useful to understand the heterogeneous effects of monetary…

“Roosevelt’s successful, if incomplete, reflation carries lessons for policymakers today. First, fiscal expansions always have two effects: Keynesian hydraulics and wealth effects from government debt. Wealth effects may be large, depending on expectations of future fiscal actions. Analyses that neglect these may underpredict the stimulative impacts and misguide policy responses to the resulting inflation.” “A…

”Our results imply that ideas, rather than simply getting harder to find, in fact require more sophisticated lab equipment to be found (or implemented). This is a scarcity that can only be overcome by increased accumulation and development of R&D capital, not necessarily just by employing more R&D staff. Furthermore, because investments in R&D equipment…

“Overall, this study suggests that casino development was a rather successful economic development strategy for Atlantic County. Back in the 1970s, the county held relatively low employment, wage, and education levels. When Atlantic City regained its appeal as a top tourist destination in the 1980s, the county’s fortunes blossomed. The casinos brought in a high…

“The financial stress associated with the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and, more recently, First Republic Bank remind us that modern economies still depend on traditional financial institutions. And even with mitigating policies such as central bank emergency lending programs and deposit insurance, bank survival depends on bank executives properly managing assets and liabilities.”

“We show that the banking system has seen a considerable decline in deposit funding since the start of the current monetary policy tightening cycle in March 2022. The speed of deposit outflows increased during March 2023, following the run on SVB, with the most acute outflows concentrated in a relatively narrow segment of the banking…

“We present a production economy with nominal price rigidities that explains several asset pricing facts, including a downward-sloping term structure of the equity premium, upward sloping term structures of nominal and real interest rates, and the cyclical variation of the term structures. In the model, after a productivity shock a countercyclical labor share exacerbates the…

“Our analysis shows that while underlying inflation could ease to near 2 percent sometime next year, its path depends crucially on the evolution of future inflation. We also show that if inflation surprises to the upside and decays more slowly, underlying inflation could converge to approximately 3 percent and risk becoming embedded in the economy.…

“This Economic Commentary combines data, economic theory, and narrative information around historical events to empirically assess the key drivers of inflation in the pandemic period since early 2021. According to estimates from one of our approaches, both aggregate demand and supply factors have contributed significantly to high inflation. Under some more stringent but potentially debatable…

“One view of customers’ withdrawals from crypto-asset platforms in 2022 is that market discipline has effectively punished firms that took excessive risks and committed other abuses in attempting to pay high returns to customers. At the same time, market discipline is small solace to the hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of retail users who…