St. Louis Fed, Report: An Introduction to Zero-Knowledge Proofs in Blockchains and Economics
“In this article we discussed ZKPs and their applications. ZKPs can make certain digital processes considerably more efficient and can be used in privacy applications. There are a lot of use cases when it comes to blockchains but also in broader areas of economics. For blockchains, ZKPs can be used to improve scalability or to…
Read MoreIMF, Report: Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper?
“This paper analyzes whether structural changes in the aftermath of the pandemic have steepened the Phillips curves in advanced economies, reversing the flattening observed in recent decades and reducing the sacrifice ratio associated with disinflation. Particularly, analysis of granular price quote data from the UK indicates that increased digitalization may have raised price flexibility, while…
Read MoreIMF, Report: How We Missed the Inflation Surge: An Anatomy of Post-2020 Inflation Forecast Errors
“This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market economies. The findings reveal evidence of forecast bias that worsened initially then subsided towards the end of the sample …”
Read MoreIMF, Report: It’s Never Different, Fiscal Policy Shocks and Inflation
“The analysis has several important policy implications: (i) fiscal policy is a critical anchor of macroeconomic stability; (ii) fiscal policy should be used with care in aggregate demand management as it has significant effects on inflation, which are highly dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions; and (iii) flexible exchange rates and rule-based policymaking provide…
Read MoreIMF, Report: Measuring the Stances of Monetary and Fiscal Policy
“We derive measures of the stances of monetary and fiscal policy within the framework of an empirically plausible extension of the basic New Keynesian model, and jointly estimate them for the United States using a closed form multivariate linear filter. Our theoretical analysis reveals that the neutral stance of monetary policy — as measured by…
Read MoreJames Bullard, Speech: The Monetary-Fiscal Policy Mix and Central Bank Strategy
Press Release & Presentation Book – Inflation “The fiscal stimulus is receding, and monetary policy has been adjusted rapidly in the last year to better align with traditional central bank strategy. Accordingly, the prospects for continued disinflation are good but not guaranteed.” “So far, core PCE inflation has declined only modestly from the peak levels…
Read MorePhilip Jefferson, Speech: On the Assessment of Current Monetary Policy
Inflation “Since peaking last June, inflation has declined about 2.75 percentage points—with nearly all the step-down explained by falling energy prices and slowing food prices. The bad news is that there has been little progress on core inflation.” “At its recent peak, total PCE inflation was 7 percent in June 2022. Currently, it is 4.2…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Up to Speed: Fed Official Report
Fed Unfiltered, Up to Speed: Fed Official Commentary
Fed Unfiltered, Daily Report: In the Box (5/12/23)
Fed Unfiltered, Daily Report: Rate Trends (5/12/23)
KC Fed, Report: Corporate Profits Contributed a Lot to Inflation in 2021 but Little in 2022—A Pattern Seen in Past Economic Recoveries
“Although inflation has been atypically high during the recovery from the pandemic, the contribution of corporate profits to inflation has not been unprecedented. Our findings support the theory that firms set prices based on current as well as future production costs, which explains the contribution of corporate profits to inflation both before and after the…
Read MoreMary Daly, Speech: Commencement Speech, USC Commencement Address – The Choice to See
A commencement address. Monetary policy and/or the economy was not mentioned.
Read MoreCBO, Report: Federal Debt and the Statutory Limit, May 2023
“The Congressional Budget Office projects that if the debt limit remains unchanged, there is a significant risk that at some point in the first two weeks of June, the government will no longer be able to pay all of its obligations. The extent to which the Treasury will be able to fund the government’s ongoing…
Read MoreNY Fed, Report: U.S. Economy in a Snapshot
“GDP growth slowed to a moderate pace in Q1. Consumption and government spending were substantial contributors to growth. Fixed investment spending was flat while inventory investment was a large drag.” “Consumer spending moderated in March and the personal saving rate increased. Manufacturing activity has stalled after retreating at the end of last year. The housing market appears…
Read MoreMichelle Bowman, Speech: The Evolving Nature of Banking, Bank Culture, and Bank Runs
Fed Funds “In my view, our policy stance is now restrictive, but whether it is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down remains uncertain. Some signs of slowing in aggregate demand, lower numbers of job openings and more modest gross domestic product (GDP) growth indicate that we have moved into restrictive territory. But inflation remains much…
Read MoreNY Fed, Report: Bank Runs and Information
“The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank (SB) has raised questions about the fragility of the banking system. One striking aspect of these bank failures is how the runs that preceded them reflect risks and trade-offs that bankers and regulators have grappled with for many years. In this post, we highlight how…
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