“Fiscal policy provided substantial support to economic growth in 2020 and 2021 amid disruptions to supply in product and labor markets, adding to the inflationary pressures that emerged during the strong rebound from the pandemic-induced recession. In this paper, we investigate the implications of supply disruptions and economic slack for the inflationary effects of fiscal…

“This paper is the first to bring together intraday timing data on the tri-party and cleared segments of the repo market for the purpose of studying the causes of the unusually large interest rate spike in repo markets in September 2019. We conclude that, in large part, the spike resulted from a confluence of factors—large…

“In 1950, the proportion of people 65 years of age and over in the US was 8.2%. By 2019, that proportion had increased to 15.8%. In 2017, the US Census projected that by 2034 the population of people 65+ will be larger than the population of people under 18.1 US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo commented…

“As the current debt ceiling episode unfolds, we infer the likelihood of a U.S. default through the lens of the sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) market. Beginning from January 2023, we document a significant increase in U.S. CDS trading, accompanied by a spike in premiums. Accordingly, we estimate an increase in default probability from about…

“We have argued that the year-over-year change in the unemployment rate or initial UI claims is a pretty good predictor (based on the AUROC criterion) for the start of a recession in the U.S. economy. We have also argued that including the six-month-lagged 10Y3M Treasury spread significantly improves the performance.” “Conditional on the current unemployment…

“Explore year-over-year changes in home prices since 2003, both regionally and nationally, using this dynamic map — updated with new home price index data on a monthly basis. Hover over a county for granular data.” https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/home-price-index

Key Findings “The value of core noncash payments in the United States grew faster from 2018 to 2021 than in any previous FRPS measurement period since 2000.” “The increase in the value of ACH transfers accounted for more than 90 percent of the rise in noncash payments value from 2018 to 2021.” “The average value…

“The aging population is clearly a powerful influence on the labor force. A recent blog post  by my colleagues at the New York Fed argues that the aging population is behind almost all the shortfall in the overall labor force participation rate relative to pre-COVID. Importantly, an aging population is likely to continue to pressure the…

“Taken together, the results in this paper show that the effectiveness of monetary policy during the negative policy rate period was likely diminished, but did not disappear. They lend credence to the usage of negative nominal interest rate policies by central banks. Although the negative rate policy lasted for years, the policy rate did not…