Tom Barkin, Interview: Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research

“So where are we today? We’re 20 months into the fastest recovery in any of our memories. The economy is today well above pre-pandemic levels, and will likely return past the pre-COVID trend line this quarter. Underlying demand looks to remain robust, fueled by healthy personal and business balance sheets, and the need to replenish low inventories. Labor markets are tight, unemployment has dropped to the historically low level of 4%, even though there’s still about 3 million fewer people employed than before the pandemic. Wages are up, inflation is elevated with core PCE inflation at 4.9%, in recent readings, like today’s CPI, showing inflation both broadening and more persistent.”