St. Louis Fed, Report: Scenarios for Inflation in 2023, Base Effects in Action
Page(s): 4
“According to the May Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), the consensus predicts that headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation will slow further in 2023, but that the decline in core inflation will be slower. The consensus predicts that headline (all items) inflation will slow to 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 from a year earlier but that core inflation (all items except for food and energy) will slow to 3.7%.”