St. Louis Fed, Report: Pace of GDP Growth, Disinflation Key in U.S. Economic Outlook

“Key data in January suggest that the economy began 2023 on solid footing, although there are some inklings that the pace of retail sales could be slower in February. Continued high inflation rates and a rebound in market-based measures of inflation expectations indicate that downside risks to the economy remain elevated. For these reasons, uncertainty about both the pace of economic growth and the degree of disinflation over the near term—as reflected in the consensus forecasts—remains extraordinarily high.”