SF Fed, Report: The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies, Common Shocks or Common Trends? 

“Across advanced economies, growth in labor productivity and total factor productivity is notably lower than it was 20 to 30 years ago. We compare the two primary narratives for this slowdown. The first emphasizes the common shock of the Great Recession. The second emphasizes a common trend slowdown. The two explanations are not mutually exclusive; we don’t know the counterfactual in the absence of the Great Recession. But in our view, the weight of the evidence favors the common-trends explanation. We discuss several plausible driving forces, including a continuing decline in research productivity, how ICT technology may lead to increased competition and lower returns from innovation and how intangible assets can serve as an anti-competitive barrier to entry.”