Cleveland Fed, Report: The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations
“The inflation expectations of individuals who lead firms can influence the prices that their firms charge customers and hence can influence overall inflation. This Economic Commentary summarizes results from the Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE), which asks top business executives for their inflation expectations once per quarter alongside a second question from a rotating…
Read MoreSt. Louis Fed, Report: The Changing Role of Family Income in College Selection and Beyond
“Previous literature has established that the role of family income has grown substantially at predicting college entry decisions when comparing the 1979 and 1997 National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth (e.g., Belley and Lochner (2007)). In this article, I further examine the changing role of family income as a determinant of college quality choice, degree attainment,…
Read MoreSt. Louis Fed, Report: Firm Exit and Liquidity, Evidence from the Great Recession
” This paper studies the role of credit constraints in accounting for the dynamics of firm exit during the Great Recession. We present novel firm-level evidence on the role of credit constraints on exit behavior during the Great Recession. Firms in financial distress, with tighter access to credit, are more likely to default than firms…
Read MoreFed Board, Report: Real GDP and Productivity Measurement, What Do Macro Data Capture?
“In conclusion, our findings highlight how economic mis-measurement in widely used data can bias our understanding of economic activity. With recent debates regarding the rise of market power and markup in the U.S., it is more important than ever to pay close attention to the measurement of economic variables used in policy decisions and academic…
Read MorePhiladelphia Fed, Report: The Changing Polarization of Party Ideologies
“U.S. congressional roll-call voting records show that as polarization of the two parties alongthe economic dimension changes, polarization along the social/cultural dimension tends tochange in the opposite direction. A model of party competition within a two-dimensionalideology space is developed in which party platforms are determined by voters who composethe party. It is shown that if…
Read MoreNeel Kashkari, Interview: CNBC
On 5/23/23, Neel Kashkari published an essay about the financial system. The CNBC interview discusses the essay, including a different regulatory system for banks, which would cause banks to hold higher amounts of capital. Monetary policy was also discussed.
Read MoreMary Daly, Interview: National Association for Business Economics/Banque de France International Economic Symposium
“Optimal policy…is about extreme data dependence and policy optionality.” The monetary policy tightening “could start to show through at any point in time. And when you add the credit tightening that we’ve been seeing to that, it means that there’s a lot of factors pulling back the reins on the economy … That’s why we…
Read MoreJames Bullard, Speech: American Gas Association (AGA) Financial Forum
Article excerpts available. Text and video have not yet been made available. “I think we’re going to have to grind higher with the policy rate in order to put enough downward pressure on inflation … I’m thinking two more moves this year, not exactly sure where those would be. But I’ve often advocated sooner rather…
Read MoreTom Barkin, Interview: Panel Discussion with Raphael Bostic, Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference
Text and video have not yet been made available. The Technology-Enabled Disruption conference (TED), now in its fifth year and put on in partnership with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Dallas, is designed to provide a better understanding of technology-enabled disruption and explore the phenomenon’s implications for the broader economy—for households and businesses.
Read MoreRaphael Bostic, Interview: Panel Discussion with Tom Barkin, Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference
Text and video have not yet been made available. The Technology-Enabled Disruption conference (TED), now in its fifth year and put on in partnership with the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta and Dallas, is designed to provide a better understanding of technology-enabled disruption and explore the phenomenon’s implications for the broader economy—for households and businesses.
Read MoreNeel Kashkari, Essay: Doubling Down on Wisdom Is an Illusory Solution
“Our financial system has required three massive government interventions in 15 years, starting with the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, followed by a near-collapse of markets in 2020 as the COVID-19 crisis erupted, and now, yet again, in 2023 when Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic collapsed, triggering strains in the regional banking…
Read MoreFed Board, Report: Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2022
“Results from the 2022 Survey of Household Economics and Decision making (SHED) indicate a decline in peoples’ financial well-being over the previous year.1 The survey, which was fielded in October 2022, found that self-reported financial well-being fell sharply and was among the lowest observed since 2016. Similarly, the share of adults who said that they…
Read MoreNY Fed, Report: Financial Vulnerability and Macroeconomic Fragility
“What is the effect of a hike in interest rates on the economy? Building on recent research, we argue in this post that the answer to this question very much depends on how vulnerable the financial system is. We measure financial vulnerability using a novel concept—the financial stability interest rate r** (or “r-double-star”)—and show that, empirically,…
Read MoreNeel Kashkari, Interview: WSJ (excerpts)
“I’m open to the idea that we can move a little bit more slowly from here.” “I would object to any kind of declaration that we’re done. If the committee chooses to skip a meeting because we want to get more information, I could make the argument why that makes sense … A skip to…
Read MoreIMF, Report: Too Low for Too Long Could Extended Periods of Ultra Easy Monetary Policy Have Harmful Effects?
“Extended periods of ultra-easy monetary policy in advanced economies have rekindled debates about the zombification of weak companies and its impact on resource allocation, economic growth, inflation, and financial stability. Using both firm-level and macroeconomic data, we find that recessions are a critical factor in the rapid increase in the number of zombie firms. Expansionary…
Read MoreAustan Goolsbee, Interview: WSJ (Transcript)
“To the extent that financial stability goals that banks are going to be conserving capital and raising lending standards and whatever to stabilize their financial positions, that’s perfectly dovetailing with the monetary policy goals. And so that’s why I think it’s worth—it’s not, I will hesitate. The word “pause” is super loaded…so I’m not going…
Read MoreNeel Kashkari, Interview: WSJ (Transcript)
Question: Does that mean you’re open to skipping June? “I’m open at this point. The arguments, the things we’ve just been talking about, I can make the argument either way. And I want see whatever data we’re going to get in, whether it’s the formal economic data, which there’s not a lot of, or it’s…
Read MoreJerome Powell, Interview: Panel Discussion with Ben Bernanke
The 5/19/23 Thomas Laubach Research Conference, an all-day event with several Fed Officials participating, either speaking or commenting on issues during panel discussions.
Read MoreJohn Williams, Speech/Q&A: Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: Past, Present, and Future
The 5/19/23 Thomas Laubach Research Conference, an all-day event with several Fed Officials participating, either speaking or commenting on issues during panel discussions.
Read MoreMichelle Bowman, Speech: Considerations for Revisions to the Bank Regulatory Framework
A 5/19/23 speech at the Texas Bankers Association (TBA) Annual Convention, San Antonio, Texas. TBA was the nation’s first state banking association and, today, remains the America’s largest statebased trade organization for bankers.
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