Mary Daly, Interview: Rebalancing the Economy with Kyla Scanlon
Inflation “And that’s about all those things we mentioned. Restaurant meals, haircuts, business services, those have been stickier. And that’s an area where my focus is really on I’m, I’m really focused on that because that also needs to slow down. Inflation needs to come down for us to really be confident that we’re moving…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (2/24/23)
James Bullard, Speech: The Credibility of Government Policies, Conference in Honor of Guillermo Calvo Panel Discussion: Back to 2% Inflation?
Video (and transcript) of the panel discussion are not yet available – speech is summarized below. “The current situation for the U.S. seems to fall more closely under the rubric of a “credible disinflation,” rather than the “incredible disinflation” experienced by Volcker.” “Since modern central banks have more credibility than their counterparts in the 1970s,…
Read MoreSusan M. Collins, Speech: Why Did We Miscast Inflation?
Video (and transcript) of the panel discussion are not yet available – speech is summarized below. Inflation “Inflation remains too high, and recent data – including several strong labor market indicators, as well as faster than expected retail sales and producer price inflation – all reinforce my view that we have more work to do,…
Read MorePhilip Jefferson, Speech: Discussion of the Paper, “Managing Disinflation”
Inflation – Referencing “Managing Disinflations” Paper “The authors’ first takeaway, based on past disinflation episodes in the United States and abroad, is that policymakers should expect that disinflation will be costly in terms of foregone output or employment. They find that all 16 of the large policy-induced disinflations in the four advanced economies they study…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: Core CPI & Core PCE
BEA, Report: Personal Income and Outlays, January 2023
“From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for January increased 5.4 percent. Prices for goods increased 4.7 percent and prices for services increased 5.7 percent. Food prices increased 11.1 percent and energy prices increased 9.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7 percent from one year ago.”…
Read MoreFed Board, Report: H.4.1 Statistical Release
Fed Board, Statement: Joint Statement on Liquidity Risks to Banking Organizations Resulting from Crypto-Asset Market Vulnerabilities
“The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) (collectively, the agencies) are issuing this statement on the liquidity risks presented by certain sources of funding from crypto-asset1-related entities, and some effective practices to manage such risks.”…
Read MoreSt. Louis Fed, Report: From Ye Olde Stagnation to Modern Growth in England
“Modern economic growth—the sustained increase of real gross domestic product (real GDP) per capita—is a relatively recent phenomenon in world history. But what led an economy to transition from stagnation to modern growth? Population and land availability contributed to the shift, but in what ways?” “In this essay, I describe the ‘pre-modern growth period’ of…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (2/23/23)
Raphael Bostic, Speech/Interview: Fed’s Role in the Banking Industry
Video (and transcript) are not yet available.
Read MoreMary Daly, Interview: A Federal Reserve President Gets Real, Lessons on Leadership and the Economy
A conversation about careers and the Federal Reserve, no economic or monetary policy information was shared. “So here’s how I approach making tough decisions. We have voracious curiosity. So that’s evidence, talking to people, models, data, history, put it all together, rigorous, rigorous evidence about how can we do our best work? Then we make…
Read MoreKC Fed, Report: The Shifting Expectations for Work from Home
“Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, occasional work from home was common for some workers. However, with the onset of the pandemic, many workers were initially forced to work from home. This shift, along with additional investments employers made in technology, has accelerated the trend in work from home. We find that on average, workers in…
Read MoreIMF, Report: Elements of Effective Policies foro Crypto Assets
“This paper aims to address questions by Fund members on how to respond to the rise of crypto assets and the associated risks. To frame the discussion, the paper defines and classifies crypto assets based on their underlying features and describes their purported benefits and potential risks. The paper presents a policy framework for crypto…
Read MoreSt. Louis Fed, Report: Nominal Wage Growth at the Individual Level in 2022
“Over the past year or two, the U.S. has experienced high inflation combined with strong wage growth. For households, the relative strength of these two forces determines whether their cost of living has kept up with their wages.” “The figure demonstrates that the lowest-wage workers experienced some of the highest nominal wage growth rates. For…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: GDP
BEA, Report: GDP, Fourth Quarter 2022 and Year 2022 (Second Estimate)
“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the ‘second’ estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.” “The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the ‘advance’ estimate issued last month. In the…
Read MoreNY Fed, Report: A Turning Point in Wage Growth?
“The surge in wage growth experienced by the U.S. economy over the past two years is showing some tentative signs of moderation. In this post, we take a closer look at the underlying data by estimating a model designed to isolate the persistent component—or trend—of wage growth. Our central finding is that this trend may…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Up to Speed: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Quantitative Tightening (QT): The Fed Board talks about the impact of balance sheet expansion. Waller mentions a level of ample reserves (11% of GDP). The NY Fed covers the caps/runoffs of QT while the Richmond Fed & Atlanta Fed talk about the uncertainty of QT, and how the reductions are another form of tightening. In…
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