Dallas Fed, Report: The Connection between Banking and Sovereign Debt Crises

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“The model suggests that governments must carefully weigh the longer-term consequences of intervening in the banking sector during crises.” “Bailouts may provide immediate relief, but they come with a trade-off: Although they can boost bank liquidity and output during banking crises, paying for bailouts may also require additional borrowing, thus leading to heightened government default…

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Richmond Fed, Report: What Are “Core Retail Sales?”

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“April’s advance monthly retail sales report showed consumer demand expanding to kick off the second quarter of 2023. Total nominal retail sales including food services rose 0.4 percent monthly, following two months of 0.7 percent declines. Even more impressively, “core retail sales” — which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services — rose 0.7…

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Cleveland Fed, Report: Improving Inflation Forecasts Using Robust Measures

Page(s): 41

“Evolution in the value of money – i.e., inflation, or the percentage change in the price level – is a central concern of monetary policy. Accordingly, policymakers at most central banks monitor a range of inflation measures to come to an informed assessment about the underlying inflationary pressures. Over the past decade, increased attention has…

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Tom Barkin, Speech/Q&A: Virginia Council of CEOs

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Article excerpts available.  Text and video have not yet been made available. “There is a lot of uncertainty about what if anything this bank situation does to consumer confidence, business confidence, business investment, consumer spending, availability of credit … there are a lot of questions about what is going to happen to demand and inflation…

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Tom Barkin, Interview: National Association for Business Economics

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Article excerpt available.  Text and video have not yet been made available. “I believe you need to bring inflation down by bringing demand down … I’m looking to be convinced that demand is in fact coming down, and that that will then start to bring inflation down.”

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IMF, Report: Riskless Capitalism

Page(s): 4

“Did uninsured depositors in the failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) need to be saved? The argument is that even though everyone knew that deposits over $250,000 were uninsured, if uninsured depositors had not been made whole, panic would have coursed through the banking system. Large depositors’ withdrawals from other banks would have compromised financial stability.…

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NY Fed, Working Remotely? Selection, Treatment, and the Market for Remote Work

Page(s): 97

“Adverse selection consequently offers an important missing piece to the puzzle of remote work’s rarity prior to Covid-19. Our estimates suggest that adverse selection distorts the decisions of 22 percent of call-center workers who do not choose to be remote because they do not want to pool with less productive types. There is promise that…

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SF Fed, Report: How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation?

Page(s): 6

“Analysis in this Letter shows that labor-cost growth has a small effect on non-housing services (NHS) inflation, as well as inflation overall. The estimates imply that the recent surge in the employment cost index explains only about 0.1 percentage point (pp) of current elevated inflation readings, a negligible portion of the 3pp increase in the…

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OFR, Report: An Early Look into Digital-Assets Regulatory Data

Page(s): 16

“This brief has highlighted the rapidly growing and complex landscape of digital-asset platforms and other intermediaries. These entities play an important role in providing investors access to virtual currencies, show a strong tendency toward market concentration, and share common features with traditional financial intermediation. Because regulations applicable to the money service business portions of digital-asset…

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Austan Goolsbee, Interview: Face the Nation (Transcript)

Page(s): 3

“Well, you know, as a voting member of the FOMC, I tried not to make it a point not to prejudge and make decisions when you’re still weeks out from the meeting. And we are going to get a lot of important data between now. I think the part that makes this job difficult is…

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Austan Goolsbee, Interview: Des Moines Register

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Article excerpts below. A partial video of the interview is also available. — “I’m hopeful that we can keep it as just a credit tightening, not a true financial crisis.” “If there is a regional and commercial banking, if the credit crunch turns into something worse that will be a threat to Iowa, to Illinois,…

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Raphael Bostic, Interview: Jacksonville Business Journal

Page(s): 7

“Well, I try to tell everyone, we go meeting to meeting, and we let the data guide us. My outlook right now is that, if the economy proceeds as I expect, we’re in a good place in terms of policy.” “But there’s a lot of data that’s going to come out between now and that…

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Loretta Mester, Interview: CNBC

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On 5/26/23, Loretta Mester spoke to Steve Liesman of CNBC about today’s PCE report, the upcoming jobs report (June 2nd) and the upcoming CPI report (June 13th) and how the data informs the Fed’s June 14th decision.

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Loretta Mester, Interview: WSJ (Transcript)

Page(s): 5

“I think we need to bring the interest—and of course I haven’t decided anything about the June meeting, but if you think about what the path of rates are going to be. What I’d like to do is get…to a level of the funds rate where I could say, OK, in my mind, there’s a…

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BEA, Report: Personal Income and Outlays, April 2023

Page(s): 12

“From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 4.4 percent. Prices for goods increased 2.1 percent and prices for services increased 5.5 percent. Food prices increased 6.9 percent and energy prices decreased 6.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7 percent from one year ago.”…

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Fed Board, Report: H.4.1 Statistical Release

Page(s): 12

“The Board’s H.4.1 statistical release, “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks,” has been modified to reflect the Federal Reserve’s return of a portion of Treasury’s equity investment in the MS Facilities LLC (Main Street Lending Program), Municipal Liquidity Facility LLC, and TALF II LLC, which occurred on…

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