CBO, Report: The Economy and the Budget
“CBO’s projections suggest that, over the long term, changes in fiscal policy would need to be made to address the rising costs of interest and mitigate other adverse consequences of high and rising debt.” “In coming decades, the aging of the population and rising health care costs will put increasing pressure on the federal budget.”…
Read MoreOFR, Report: Risk Spotlight, Risk from the Real Estate Market is Limited, but Changes in Occupancy and Prices May Increase the Risk
“Neither the commercial real estate (CRE) nor the residential real estate market poses a significant risk to the U.S. financial system in the foreseeable future. The CRE market performed well throughout most of 2022, but it is now showing weakness. Home prices began to soften in 2022, in conjunction with the Federal Reserve’s interest rate…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (3/23/23)
Fed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: YC Spreads (Recession Indicators)
Fed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (3/22/23)
Jerome Powell, Speech/Q&A: FOMC Press Conference – March 2023
Speech Inflation “The process of getting inflation back down to 2 percent has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy.” Inflation Expectations “Despite elevated inflation, longer-term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters, as well as measures from…
Read MoreFed Board, Report: Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) – March 2023
The terminal rate stays at 5.1% (YE23), dropping to 4.3% by YE24. In the dot plot, 10 of 19 Fed Officials are in the 5.00% to 5.25% range.
Read MoreFed Board, Press Release: FOMC March 21-22 Meeting
“The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-3/4 to 5 percent.”
Read MoreOFR, Report: Digital Currency and Banking-Sector Stability
“Digital currencies have the potential to greatly reshape the financial sector. We provide a macroeconomic model with a financial sector in which digital currencies coexist with bank deposits and households hold both forms of liquidity. Our main theoretical result is that when banks face financial frictions (costly equity issuance), digital currency harms financial stability, increasing…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: 2yr & 10yr Treasury, Fed Funds
Fed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (3/21/23)
Fed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: Inflation (5-year Breakeven)
Fed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: Tables (3/20/23)
Fed Unfiltered, Weekly Report: 3/20/23
Despite all the clarity from Fed Officials, including Powell’s singular message prior to the blackout: The banking crisis has now muddled the rate hike view.
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: SOFR, Fed Funds, 3M T-Bill, 2yr Treasury
Fed Board (and Treasury), Press Release: We Welcome the Announcements by the Swiss Authorities Today
“The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen and Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell: “We welcome the announcements by the Swiss authorities today to support financial stability. The capital and liquidity positions of the U.S. banking system are strong, and the U.S. financial system is resilient. We have…
Read MoreSwiss National Bank, Press Release: Liquidity Assistance to Support UBS Takeover of Credit Suisse
“UBS today announced the takeover of Credit Suisse. This takeover was made possible with the support of the Swiss federal government, the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority FINMA and the Swiss National Bank.” “In addition, and based on the Federal Council’s Emergency Ordinance, Credit Suisse and UBS can obtain a liquidity assistance loan with privileged…
Read MoreFed Board, Press Release: Coordinated Central Bank Action to Enhance the Provision of U.S. Dollar Liquidity
“The Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Swiss National Bank are today announcing a coordinated action to enhance the provision of liquidity via the standing U.S. dollar liquidity swap line arrangements.” “To improve the swap lines’ effectiveness in providing U.S. dollar…
Read MoreFed Unfiltered, Annotated Graphs: 2yr & 10yr Treasury, Fed Funds
IMF, Report: Measurement and Use of Cash by Half the World’s Population
“The use of cash for payments is not well measured. We view the value of cash withdrawn from ATMs, or as a share of all payments, as a more accurate and timely measure of cash use compared to the standard measure of currency in circulation, or as a ratio to GDP. These two measures are…
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