Raphael Bostic, Interview: CNBC
Jobs
“Well, I think that unemployment is going to rise a little bit. We have to do our summary of economic projections submissions. In my submission for this year, I have unemployment moving from about 3.7% to 4%. So, a slight increase, but not huge numbers. And I think it’s just going to be the byproduct of the economy slowing down. At some point, we’ll absorb all of those excess jobs, and the slowdown will take in some of the jobs that are currently out there.”
Recession
“Recession is not my baseline projection. And as we see today, there’s still a lot of momentum in the economy. There’s a lot of energy that can absorb the more restrictive policy stance that we have. And so, I’m not really expecting there to be a recession. And if there is one, my sources are telling me it will likely be short and shallow.”
Fed Funds
“My projection has us somewhere between five and five and a quarter, in that range. That’s the range that I think we need to move to. If the economy proceeds as I expect, which is continual, gradual slowdown like we’ve just seen in the numbers today. And then, what I think is the most important actually, is just to hold there, and stay there, and let that policy stance really grip the economy, and just make sure that the momentum is fully arrested so that we get to a place where demand and supply start to come more into balance, and we start to see those pressures on inflation really come down.”
Pause
“Once we get to a number, I want, if the economy continues to proceed as we expect, just to stay there and hold it. And for me, my projection I have is holding it well into 2024 because I think that we should just wait and see. And I don’t think there’s a lot of urgency. There will not be a lot of urgency once we get to that level to step back.”
25bps or 50bps
“Today, I’d be comfortable with either a 50 or a 25. And if I start to hear signs that the labor market is starting to ease a bit in terms of this tightness, then I might lean more in the 25 basis point position.”