Neel Kashkari, Speech: Q&A at the Fargo-Moorhead-Chamber of Commerce

“So about six months ago, the Federal Open Market Committee started adjusting what we call forward guidance, adjusting how we are likely going to set interest rates in the future. And now we’ve done the first interest rate increase last week, and we’ve signaled we expect it will probably be six more this year, 25 basis-point increases. It could be more, could be less. I think that I penciled in, in my forecast, that we’d have seven this year, but it’s really going to depend on the economic data. If some of these imbalances that I described start to sort themselves out in the next few months, and I hope they do, then maybe we won’t need as many. But if they don’t, and if the high inflation is sustained, and there continue to be worker shortages around the country, then maybe we’ll end up having to do more. We will have to see how the data evolves, but I’ve certainly shifted my views quite dramatically in the past six months.”