Michelle Bowman, Speech: Brief Remarks on the Economy and Bank Supervision

Fed Funds

“In recent months, we’ve seen a decline in some measures of inflation but we have a lot more work to do, so I expect the FOMC will continue raising interest rates to tighten monetary policy, as we stated after our December meeting.2 My views on the appropriate size of future rate increases and on the ultimate level of the federal funds rate will continue to be guided by the incoming data and its implications for the outlook for inflation and economic activity.”

Inflation

“I will be looking for compelling signs that inflation has peaked and for more consistent indications that inflation is on a downward path, in determining both the appropriate size of future rate increases and the level at which the federal funds rate is sufficiently restrictive. I expect that once we achieve a sufficiently restrictive federal funds rate, it will need to remain at that level for some time in order to restore price stability, which will in turn help to create conditions that support a sustainably strong labor market.”

Jobs

“It is likely that as a part of this process, labor markets will soften somewhat before we bring inflation back to our 2 percent goal. While the effects of monetary policy tightening on the job market have generally been limited so far, slowing the economy will likely mean that job creation also slows. And if there are unforeseen shocks to the economy, growth may slow further. It’s important to keep in mind that there are costs and risks to tightening policy to lower inflation, but I see the costs and risks of allowing inflation to persist as far greater. These dynamics make the difficult decisions facing the FOMC even more challenging, but it is absolutely necessary that the Committee achieves our goal of price stability.”