John Williams, Interview: CNBC

“And now we’re seeing in our projections and I very much agree with this, the unemployment rates actually going to be moving up over the next few years. So that’s not a recession, but I think that’s my base case is the economy slows enough to see the unemployment rate get up to about a little over 4% over the next couple years. So that is how I see it. Of course, there’s a great deal of uncertainty around that outlook and if that changes, I’m going to change my projection.”