James Bullard Interview: CNBC

“Yeah, we’re going to follow the data very carefully here, and I think we will get it right. Inflation is high and we’ve had to move aggressively just to get back in position. I think one thing for everybody to remember is we’re starting from an extremely low, near zero interest rate, and now we’ve raised up a fair amount, but we’ve still got some ways to go here to get to restrictive monetary policy. I’ve argued that now, with the hotter inflation numbers in the spring, we should get to 3.75 to 4% this year, and you know exactly whether you want to do that at a particular meeting or some other meeting I think, is a great question. I’ve liked front loading. I think it enhances our inflation fighting credentials, keeps inflation expectations under control. We did do the two 75 basis points in a row. Greenspan did one, once in 1994, so I think in our situation here with the high inflation, it was appropriate to go twice in a row.”

“Usually recessions is sort of in the eye of the beholder. There’s no real official definition. There’s this NBER dating committee but they’re kind of not official government or anything like that. So it is in the eye of the beholder, but traditionally we’ve not said that there’s a recession in a environment with flat and low unemployment and with substantial job growth as you’re pointing out.”

“Whether there would be a recession or not right now, I think the second half will be stronger in terms of GDP will be stronger than the first half was. So a lot of the indicators will now go back in the other direction of positive growth and I think labor markets will hold up pretty well here. Just talking to firms, it sounds like they’re still scrambling for workers.”