Fed Unfiltered, Weekly Report: Monday Morning Reset (2/13/23)
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Five Fed Officials, including Powell and Williams, are now on record supporting a 25bps rate hike. Williams talked about a terminal rate between 5.00% and 5.50% as “very reasonable”. And, once the terminal rate has been reached, Fed Officials have talked about holding the rate at a high level for “a period of time” (Powell); “we’ll probably have to stay there all during 2023 and into 2024” (Bullard); “well into 2024” (Bostic); and Barkin mentioned how “you can’t declare victory too soon.”
Based on Fed Official commentary, expect:
- 25bp rate hike March 22.
- 25bp rate hike May 3.
- A terminal rate of 5.25%.