Fed Unfiltered, Weekly Report: Monday Morning Reset (1/30/23)
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Quick Overview
Due to the Fed’s communication blackout, no Fed official spoke last week and no research reports were published.
Prior to the blackout, four Fed officials went on record supporting a 25bp hike on Feb 1; two others mentioned either a 25bp or 50bp hike and one Fed official (Bullard, of course) supported a 50bp hike. We’ll find out their decision Wed (11am Pacific), some dissention is possible.
Two economic reports were published last week:
- GDP – Q4 2022 Advanced Estimate – 2.9%.
- A strong Q4 could be followed by a weak Q1 2023 – Atlanta Fed’s first estimate of Q1 GDP is 0.7%, in-line with the Fed’s forecast for 2023.
- PCE – Dec declined to 4.4% (from Nov’s 4.7%).
- On 1/20/23, Waller mentioned how he’d need to see 6-months of data before pausing – three month of declines are in, only three to go.
Jan’s jobs report is out this week – the median consensus is job growth of 175,000 (job growth of about 100,000 a month is needed to keep up with labor force growth).