Cleveland Fed, Report: The Impacts of Supply Chain Disruptions on Inflation

“This Economic Commentary combines data, economic theory, and narrative information around historical events to empirically assess the key drivers of inflation in the pandemic period since early 2021. According to estimates from one of our approaches, both aggregate demand and supply factors have contributed significantly to high inflation. Under some more stringent but potentially debatable assumptions, we are able to isolate disruptions in supply chains due to forces such as the pandemic or natural disasters. With this latter approach, estimates indicate that both aggregate demand and supply forces, including supply chain disruptions, have driven inflation.”