Weekly Reports

FOMC – A 50bps Hike in Dec with a 5.0% Terminal Rate After Thursday’s CPI report, a 50bp rate hike is likely on the table for the December 13-14 FOMC. Headline CPI decreased to 7.7% (from 8.2%). Core CPI decreased to 6.3% (from 6.6%). The 2yr & 10yr Treasury tumbled on the news – and…

FOMC – A Higher End Point & a Narrow Path to a Soft Landing The Fed increased Fed Funds another 75bps last week. In the post meeting press conference, Powell talked about a new terminal rate, “higher than previously expected” and the challenge of a soft landing as high inflation continues, “we have to have…

FOMC – This Week a Rate Hike and Talk about Lags and Pauses A 75bps rate hike is expected at this week’s FOMC meeting. Based on the September SEP and Fed commentary, another 50bps hike in December is likely, although expect a less unified Fed and a Dove/Hawk discussion centered around the level of upcoming…

FOMC – 75bps Still Most Likely at Nov 1-2 FOMC Communication/forward guidance from the Fed remains steadfast – inflation is too high, we’ll see between 100-125bps in hikes over the next two meetings (Nov 1-2, Dec 13-14) and no one wants to repeat the rate hike/rate cut approach of the 1970’s, where rate cuts were…

FOMC – A 75bp Rate Hike The Fed’s tough talk about addressing inflation continues, both in Powell’s press conference and the Sept SEP forecast for Fed Funds (4.40% by YE), which means we might see another 75bps rate hike in November and a 50bps rate hike in December. Upcoming Economic Events 9/29/22 – Q2 GDP…

Page 1 – Speeches, Interviews & Reports FOMC – Generally, where Fed currently stands. FOMC – The possibility of overtightening. QT – Runoff increases in September. Page 2 – Economic Indicators & Rate Trends