Weekly Reports

A 25bp rate hike this week, with a forecast for one more and an option for additional hikes (if the expected downturn isn’t restrictive enough).

Despite all the clarity from Fed Officials, including Powell’s singular message prior to the blackout: The banking crisis has now muddled the rate hike view.

Fed Officials – Monetary Policy — Instead of a flurry of commentary from Fed Officials last week, there was one speaker and one message: Powell: “Nothing about the data suggests to me that we’ve tightened too much. Indeed, it suggests that we still have work to do.” Fed Officials – Economy — John Williams updated…

Quick Overview

Quick Overview Amidst all the uncertainty, one thing is certain – the Fed Funds rate is going up. A few weeks ago, Jerome Powell mentioned how the disinflationary process (increasing rates to lower inflation) is “probably going to be bumpy”. Since that comment was made …

Quick Overview

Five Fed Officials, including Powell and Williams, are now on record supporting a 25bps rate hike.  Williams talked about a terminal rate between 5.00% and 5.50% as “very reasonable”.  And, once the terminal rate has been reached, Fed Officials have talked about holding the rate at a high level for “a period of time” (Powell);…