Speeches, Interviews, Essays

“I mean, this whole recession that we went into was driven by the pandemic. I mean, this is why historical precedent isn’t exactly something we can rely on when we look at coming out of this recession. This one is different because of the pandemic. Years ago, or two years ago, when people were asking,…

“So as we continue to move forward on our plan to move the financial conditions to more neutral levels using both our policy rate and balance sheet tools, I’d expect to see labor demand coming down. And that should take place in large measure through reduction in the current very elevated level of vacancy. So…

“Now, with inflation persisting and broadening, we see clearly that it is time to normalize our monetary policy stance. At our last meeting, the Fed decided to raise interest rates 25 basis points, and the median Federal Open Market Committee member forecasted seven rate increases this year and three to four next year. These forecasts…

“I would say a neutral setting for monetary policy is somewhere in the 2.25 to 2.5% range. And I would say that it would be good if we got there… Well, most recently I thought by the end of our next March meeting would be a time when we’d be at the 2.25 to 2.5%…

“The Cleveland Fed will continue to do its part, by providing data through the Small Business Credit Survey and distributing our analyses of credit conditions in our region and in the nation. We will continue to engage with small businesses and community development organizations to inform ourselves about the challenges small businesses and start-ups are…

Bullard reiterated that modern central banks have more credibility than they did in the 1970s and they also make more use of forward guidance. “As a result, indications of future policy rate increases are incorporated into current financial market pricing, before policy actions are taken,” he said. In light of the Fed’s forward guidance since…

“Inflation is widespread. It is showing up throughout a vast array of goods that comprise the CPI “basket” — and among some of those that aren’t in the basket.” “The bottom line is that generous fiscal policies, supply chain disruptions, and accommodative monetary policy have pushed inflation far higher than I — and my colleagues…

“So we know that this policy is as accommodative as at any time when we have inflation this high, when we have labor markets this tight. So there’s no question that policy has to be removed, but I think you have to do that in the context of having highly negative real rates, a $9…

“Looking forward, at every meeting, we will have the opportunity to calibrate the appropriate pace of firming through the policy rate to reflect what the incoming data tell us about the outlook and the balance of risks. For today, every indicator of longer-term inflation expectations lies within the range of historical values consistent with our…

“Our monetary policy actions, combined with those of other countries, will help bring demand for labor and products in closer alignment with available supply. As this reduction in demand-induced price pressures takes effect and supply constraints gradually ease, I anticipate inflation readings will begin to decline later this year, although this process will take time…