Speeches, Interviews, Essays

Transcript not available (link to interview provided). https://finance.yahoo.com/news/philadelphia-fed-president-patrick-harker-yahoo-finance-transcript-june-2022-193455788.html

“Making appropriate monetary policy in this uncertain environment requires a recognition that the economy often evolves in unexpected ways. Inflation has obviously surprised to the upside over the past year, and further surprises could be in store. We therefore will need to be nimble in responding to incoming data and the evolving outlook. And we…

“So, data on today’s economy still looks relatively healthy. Tomorrow is of course unclear. Our path forward depends on three significant uncertainties. First, how long will it take the pandemic’s impact on spending, labor supply and supply chains to normalize? Second, how high does the Fed need to raise rates to calm demand, bring inflation…

“The current U.S. macroeconomic situation is straining the Fed’s credibility with respect to its inflation target. In economic theory, expected inflation and actual inflation should be closely related. The current divergence between actual inflation readings and TIPS-based expected inflation will have to be resolved, possibly resulting in still higher inflation expectations. In the 1970s, inflation…

“So I’m not predicting a recession. If you look at the forecast that where submitted and released earlier this week of all the participants in the FOMC meeting. You’ll see that we do have growth slowing to a little bit below trend growth. And we do have the unemployment rate moving up a little bit…

“This week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took another significant step toward achieving our inflation objective by raising the Federal Funds rate target by 75 basis points. In my view, and I speak only for myself, if the data comes in as I expect I will support a similar-sized move at our July meeting.”…

“The tightening cycle in 1994 might be a better benchmark because, as is true now, the FOMC at the time had a lot of credibility with the public, although inflation was not as high in 1994 as it is today. So it is not a perfect comparison either.” “Minneapolis Fed staff’s best estimate is that…

“It’s funny you asked that question, we had the same debate in my building. We called one of our crews, the go big or go home crew. I think from my view, if you think about the trajectory of where policy has been, not three, four months ago, a 50 basis point move was thought…

“Inflation is running near 1970s levels in the U.S. and the euro area.” “How will the Fed and the ECB return inflation to the target level of 2%?” “Current inflation in the U.S. and the euro area is near 1970s levels.” “The Volcker disinflation was costly, but it was not credible initially—Volcker had to earn…

“The international financial and monetary system that emerged after World War II has been defined by the centrality of the dollar. It is the world’s reserve currency and the most widely used for payments and investments. As outlined in recent work by Board staff, this global preeminence has been supported by the depth and liquidity…