Speeches, Interviews, Essays

“All that said, I don’t want to declare a long-term shift in the prevailing winds when we still don’t know exactly how the pandemic era will play out. Some changes may reverse in time — countries and companies notoriously have short memories. And never count disinflationary forces out. The pandemic accelerated e-commerce, so maybe its…

“So, what does tighter monetary policy mean for the economy? We are already seeing some of the effects. Broad measures of financial conditions, including borrowing and mortgage rates and equity prices, have become significantly less supportive of spending. This has led to a decline in activity in the housing market and signs of slowing in…

“Others argue the Fed was too expansionary for too long — that we were caught off guard after the prior decade of stubbornly low inflation.” “We believed inflation was temporary, driven by the supply and demand factors discussed earlier. History taught us not to overreact to short-lived supply shocks — it usually doesn’t make sense…

“Today, I would like to talk about the future of supervision and regulation of the largest banks, which changed significantly after the financial crisis 14 years ago and has evolved more gradually over the past 5 years. As the backdrop for this look into the future, it is important to recognize that this recent past…

“It will take some time for the global tightening to have its full effect in many sectors. While the effect on financial conditions tends to be immediate or even anticipatory, the effects on activity and price setting in different sectors may occur with a lag, with highly interest-sensitive sectors such as housing adjusting quickly and…

“3.7% unemployment in the US is not the most common thing if you look at the postwar data. If it goes up as the summary of economic projections indicated to something like 4.4%, I would interpret that as just a return to mean of the unemployment rate to something closer to the natural rate of…

Speech Segment “Of course, inflation has been too high for too long, coming in above target for more than a year. But inflation expectations, especially at the longer end, have remained stable and well anchored around the Fed’s 2-percent inflation goal. This means that, so far, inflation psychology has not been lost and the public…

“So then we have to ask, okay, we’ve got to moderate both the labor market and product markets, if we’re going to get inflation back down. At some point, once we get real rates up, and we see more of that moderation demand, you’re exactly right. Then there’s some trade offs, and then you need…

No economic news was discussed. “The Community Banking Research Conference brings together researchers, regulators, policymakers, and community bankers to discuss the unique and important role community banks play in our economy. The conference was launched in the years following the financial crisis, in a collaboration by the Federal Reserve, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors…

No economic news was discussed. “To wrap up, competition is vital to ensuring that we continue to have a vibrant and innovative banking industry. In the 10 years of this research conference, we’ve seen how competition has led to the adoption of a suite of digital products and services by banks of all sizes. From…