Speeches, Interviews, Essays

Fed Funds & Terminal Rate “And I would point you to the SEP again for our current assessment of what — of what that peak level will be. As you will have seen, 19 people filled out the SEP this time, and 17 of those 19 wrote down a peak rate of 5 percent or…

No economic information was shared. “After every symposium, we write a summary of the event and post it on our website.2 These summaries provide an archive of the concerns people have for the coming year, and a review of them shows some interesting patterns: We have continually been concerned about the health of the Midwest’s…

No economic information was shared. “The Kaufman Center and this conference are meaningful extensions of George’s drive to create an ongoing forum for expert discussion. Among other objectives, the center aims to bring together nationally recognized experts in banking and financial services, students, the banking community, and the general public to inform policy debates and…

“It’s possible that labor force participation will recover — in time — to our pre-pandemic normal. But what if it doesn’t? What if the aberration isn’t today but instead the above-trend participation at the end of the last upturn? There are many reasons to think that might be the case.” “The growth of the working-age…

Fed Funds “And that might let us shift to a slower pace of rate increases going forward as early as the next meeting I imagine we’re going to be considering this. And I think that’s smart. It’ll give us space to begin to modulate a bit and then think about, again, what that rate is,…

Inflation “Today, the latest reading showed the PCE inflation rate. The one that we’re focused on is at 6.0% and we want it to be 2%. So to answer your question, we need to get from six to two. Honestly, I think this is going to take a couple years. My hope is that we…

Fed Funds “As we said in the most recent FOMC statement, we anticipate “ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.”11 What policy rate is sufficiently restrictive we will only learn over time…

Fed Funds “It seems to me likely that the ultimate level of rates will need to be somewhat higher than thought at the time of the September meeting and Summary of Economic Projections. I will return to policy at the end of my comments, but for now, I will simply say that we have more…

No economic information was shared. “I think it’s a real testament to his leadership that each of those of us who are on the Federal Open Market Committee feel very comfortable and encouraged to share our perspectives and the way that we view the data and information, and how we gather that data and information,…

Fed Funds “Further increases are anticipated to raise the policy rate to a sufficiently restrictive level that puts meaningful downward pressure on inflation.” Restrictive Stance Defined “What policy rate level is needed to exert downward pressure on inflation given the current macroeconomic situation in the U.S.? While there is plenty of debate on this question,…