Speeches, Interviews, Essays

Recessions “So one thing I would say at first is we’re trying not to have recessions. So even as we affect the pace of the economy through our policy stance, the goal is really to continue growth and have us have continuous, steady, longstanding growth, which is basically what you saw leading up to the…

Fed Funds “I expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed. In my view, hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward. At some point this year, I expect that…

Inflation Expectations “But inflation is moderating in response to front-loaded and aggressive monetary policy in 2022. I would cite evidence on inflation expectations, which I think have been kept in check as we’ve tried to deal with this inflation shock by the aggressive monetary policy that we’ve employed.” Inflation “So that shows that the Fed’s…

Inflation – Demand “ Demand reduction in less interest-sensitive segments tends to take a bit longer. And remember that the pandemic era is still partly with us. Excess savings and the return of consumer borrowing to pre-pandemic levels are funding continued strong consumption, especially for services like travel. Billions in fiscal appropriations are still being…

Excerpts from the NY Times publication are below – no posting is available. Fed Funds “I think 25 or 50 would be reasonable; I’d lean at this stage to 25, but it’s very data-dependent.” “Adjusting slowly gives more time to assess the incoming data before we make each decision, as we get close to where…

Fed Funds “In recent months, we’ve seen a decline in some measures of inflation but we have a lot more work to do, so I expect the FOMC will continue raising interest rates to tighten monetary policy, as we stated after our December meeting.2 My views on the appropriate size of future rate increases and…

No economic information was mentioned. “I will address three main points. First, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy independence is an important and broadly supported institutional arrangement that has served the American public well. Second, the Fed must continuously earn that independence by using our tools to achieve our assigned goals of maximum employment and price…

GDP “So my projection for 2023 is for aggregate growth of GDP, gross domestic product, to be about 1%. That’s slower than what I think our baseline, we could probably grow about 2%. But it is not negative and my baseline projection or outlook is not for a recession.” Jobs “I do have unemployment in…

Fed Funds “Phase one is raise the interest rate until you get it into somewhat restrictive territory. That part is complete. Now we have to raise the interest rate just enough to be able to sit with that and keep the economy bridled sufficiently to bring inflation down. That is going to be challenging to…

Inflation Expectations “Through its aggressive action over the past year, the Federal Reserve has demonstrated its commitment to restoring price stability. This may explain why measures of longer-run inflation expectations have remained relatively stable even as realized inflation has proven to be stubbornly high.” Policy Path and Economic Uncertainty “As policymakers judge the appropriate path…