Speeches, Interviews, Essays

Speech Fed Funds “And in keeping with this logic and based on the data in hand at this moment, there appears to be little turbulence ahead, so I currently favor a 25-basis point increase at the FOMC’s next meeting at the end of this month. Beyond that, we still have a considerable way to go…

Inflation Expectations “Inflation expectations represent another gear that is turning at an encouraging speed. Longer-run inflation expectations remain remarkably stable at levels consistent with 2 percent inflation.2 After rising moderately last year, households’ three-year-ahead inflation expectations are now back to where they were in January 2021, and one-year-ahead inflation expectations have started to reverse the rise…

Monetary Policy Lag “From March to December 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) undertook a large cumulative tightening in the stance of monetary policy by raising the policy rate 4-1/4 percentage points and shrinking the balance sheet. Although financial conditions adjust immediately to reflect expected and actual changes in monetary policy, the full adjustment…

Inflation “We are starting to see some effects of the cumulative policy actions the FOMC has taken so far. Less demand (from higher interest rates), combined with lower input costs (from easing supply bottlenecks), are contributing to noticeably slower inflation for goods – with the prices for some goods actually declining. These developments, together with…

Fed Funds & 25bps or 50bps “I expect that we will raise rates a few more times this year, though, to my mind, the days of us raising them 75 basis points at a time have surely passed. In my view, hikes of 25 basis points will be appropriate going forward.” Inflation “But there’s more…

Fed Funds “Well, my own view is that we’re going to have to get the funds rate above 5% in order to get inflation, really on a sustained downward path to 2%.” “So I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do at any one particular…

Fed Funds “Considering the uncertainties we face, I don’t find it particularly helpful at this time to lock in on a peak rate or the precise path rates will follow. Rather, we need to keep our eyes on the economic and financial outlook and lay out a strategy that is both flexible and robust so…

Fed Funds ‘We put in a dot for the end of 2023 at five and a quarter of 5.5%. So I guess we’re calling it five and three eights, so that would be slightly higher than the median dot.” “I think the front loading has served us well. I think you should move as rapidly…

Inflation “And, while last week’s CPI did come down, and that’s welcomed, the median is still much higher than what I’d want to see.” Recession “Well, somebody said in something I read this is the most predicted potential recession in history.  And there’s a lot of predictions on it.  But yet the timeline keeps getting…

Speech — Only regional economic information was shared. Panel Discussion — Video not currently available. “Survey data are an important tool in the economic business. At the Fed, we look at everything from big broad numbers like GDP and employment growth to more granular figures like restaurant reservations and mobility data. These data — hard…