Speeches, Interviews, Essays

Fed Funds “Last month we received a barrage of data that has challenged my view in January that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was making significant progress in moderating economic activity and reducing inflation. I’m not the only one whose outlook has shifted. Since the end of January, financial market participants have revised their…

Fed Funds “And so, there’s a lot of attention to the next meeting in March. Is it going to be 25 or is it going to be 50? I’m open-minded at this point about whether it’s 25 or 50 basis points. To me, what’s much more important than whether it’s 25 or 50 is what…

Inflation “Amid some signs that price pressures could be receding, a narrative has gained momentum among some commentators that the Fed should consider reversing its course of raising the federal funds rate lest we go too far and cause undue economic hardship.” “While that perspective is understandable, history teaches that if we ease up on…

Monetary policy was not discussed. General Economic Comment “No doubt there will be bumps in the road to come. It’s a strange and unprecedented moment coming out of the pandemic. Lots of things in the economy got turned on their heads, and we need to figure out where they will land and what that means…

Monetary Policy was not covered in this speech.  Transcription is not available. ———-

Inflation “In summary, core goods inflation has started to come down. Several indicators suggest that housing services inflation is likely to come down in the coming months. There is more uncertainty surrounding inflation in core services excluding housing. Over time, we’ll learn more about inflation dynamics in this sector.” “Often, the FOMC must balance competing…

Monetary Policy Lags “I’ve heard some people say the lags have shortened. I don’t think there’s anything definitive that we can point to because, remember, there wasn’t anything definitive about exactly what the lag was.” Inflation “It’s always a risk management exercise. There’s not going to be like, “Oh, we know that stopping now is…

Recession “But even within the forum paper itself there is a tension between the estimated Phillips curve findings and the historical analysis presented in Section 2. The historical analysis documents that the vast majority of disinflations in the U.S. and in other advanced economies have been accompanied by recessions, a finding that differs from the…

Fed Funds “I see that we’re going to have to bring interest rates above 5%. We’ll figure out how much above. That’s going to depend on how the economy evolves over time. But I do think we have to be somewhat above 5% and hold there for a time in order to get inflation on…

Inflation “And that’s about all those things we mentioned. Restaurant meals, haircuts, business services, those have been stickier. And that’s an area where my focus is really on I’m, I’m really focused on that because that also needs to slow down. Inflation needs to come down for us to really be confident that we’re moving…