Reports

“In general equilibrium, sustainability is improved by a higher rate of expected GDP growth, a decrease in GDP growth risk, and improved depth of financial markets. The expected rate of GDP growth always has a first-order effect on sustainability, so increasing growth may be the primary way to achieve sustainability objectives …”

“Does the auto industry still have further room to run? While auto sales have been trending up over the past several months, we’ll look into a couple of reasons why the future may not be so bright. Despite rising interest rates dampening demand in this traditionally interest rate-sensitive sector, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR)…

“We design and field an innovative survey of unemployment insurance (UI) recipients that yields new insights about wage stickiness on the layoff margin. Most UI recipients express a willingness to accept wage cuts of 5-10 percent to save their jobs, and one-third would accept a 25 percent cut. Yet worker-employer discussions about cuts in pay,…

Web3 is used to describe the next iteration of the internet in which decentralized services are automated on blockchains. This paper describes the elements of Web3 including blockchains and tokens. It describes the largest decentralized finance protocols and some specific services where blockchain and tokens can be used. The paper concludes with a brief discussion…

“In May 2022, Sam Khater—chief economist for Freddie Mac—argued that a surge in first-time buyers had been an important driver of the housing market the previous year. In contrast, using data from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, we find that the share of home purchases by first-time buyers fell in 2021. This suggests that…

“Total debt balances grew by $148 billion in the first quarter of 2023, a modest increase after 2022’s record growth. Mortgages, the largest form of household debt, grew by only $121 billion, according to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data.  The increase was tempered by a…

“In this article we discussed ZKPs and their applications. ZKPs can make certain digital processes considerably more efficient and can be used in privacy applications. There are a lot of use cases when it comes to blockchains but also in broader areas of economics. For blockchains, ZKPs can be used to improve scalability or to…

“This paper analyzes whether structural changes in the aftermath of the pandemic have steepened the Phillips curves in advanced economies, reversing the flattening observed in recent decades and reducing the sacrifice ratio associated with disinflation. Particularly, analysis of granular price quote data from the UK indicates that increased digitalization may have raised price flexibility, while…

“This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market economies. The findings reveal evidence of forecast bias that worsened initially then subsided towards the end of the sample …”

“The analysis has several important policy implications: (i) fiscal policy is a critical anchor of macroeconomic stability; (ii) fiscal policy should be used with care in aggregate demand management as it has significant effects on inflation, which are highly dependent on fiscal space and economic conditions; and (iii) flexible exchange rates and rule-based policymaking provide…