Reports

“Analysis in this Letter shows that labor-cost growth has a small effect on non-housing services (NHS) inflation, as well as inflation overall. The estimates imply that the recent surge in the employment cost index explains only about 0.1 percentage point (pp) of current elevated inflation readings, a negligible portion of the 3pp increase in the…

“This brief has highlighted the rapidly growing and complex landscape of digital-asset platforms and other intermediaries. These entities play an important role in providing investors access to virtual currencies, show a strong tendency toward market concentration, and share common features with traditional financial intermediation. Because regulations applicable to the money service business portions of digital-asset…

“Policymakers have examined recent bank failures closely and are taking seriously the question of why deposit runs were so fast and large by historical standards. They have pointed to technology, social media, and the nature of the depositor base at each bank as factors that increased the speed of runs. From an historical perspective, the…

“Given the important uncertainties facing the U.S. Economy, it will be essential for the Federal Reserve to communicate carefully how it assesses the incoming data and to provide clear guidance on what this means for its expected path of the policy rate. In this regard, greater emphasis should be placed on the need for interest…

“From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 4.4 percent. Prices for goods increased 2.1 percent and prices for services increased 5.5 percent. Food prices increased 6.9 percent and energy prices decreased 6.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7 percent from one year ago.”…

“The Board’s H.4.1 statistical release, “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks,” has been modified to reflect the Federal Reserve’s return of a portion of Treasury’s equity investment in the MS Facilities LLC (Main Street Lending Program), Municipal Liquidity Facility LLC, and TALF II LLC, which occurred on…

“The failures of several U.S. regional banks have stimulated discussions about the macroeconomic effects of a likely credit contraction triggered by the recent banking turmoil. Drawing on historical evidence from advanced economies, this study documents a sizable and persistent decline in output and rise in unemployment following non-systemic financial distress. The effects of a systemic…

“Our results suggest that any significant tightening in credit conditions that has occurred in the wake of recent bank failures may take some time to impact the broad swath of Main Street businesses, as just 25 percent of firms in the SBU anticipate seeking credit financing during the next 12 months. And the majority of…

“If you follow speeches by members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), you will hear references to both “headline” and “core” household inflation. The former refers to a measure of inflation that is based on a weighted basket of goods and services from all household spending categories. The latter typically refers to a measure…

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2023 (table 1), according to the “second” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.” “The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than…