Reports

“The global economy is poised to slow this year, before rebounding next year. Growth will remain weak by historical standards, as the fight against inflation and Russia’s war in Ukraine weigh on activity.” “Despite these headwinds, the outlook is less gloomy than in our October forecast, and could represent a turning point, with growth bottoming out and…

“Historically, the CRE market has been highly intertwined with financial conditions and the business cycle. During the recent downturns such as the GFC and the Covid-19 pandemic, the initial collapse in transaction volumes, a liquidity proxy, led to steep declines in valuations. However, the transmission mechanisms of these two crises have been different. While valuations…

“From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for December increased 5.0 percent (table 11). Prices for goods increased 4.6 percent and prices for services increased 5.2 percent. Food prices increased 11.2 percent and energy prices increased 6.9 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.4 percent from one…

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.2 percent.” “The increase in real GDP reflected increases in private inventory investment, consumer spending, federal government…

“The size of the U.S. population, as well as its age and sex composition, affects the economy and the federal budget. For example, the number of people who are employed depends on the size of the working-age population, and the number of beneficiaries of federal programs (including Social Security and Medicare) depends on the size…

“Richer countries typically devote a growing share of national income to social services and health care. But does a nation’s greater income translate into longer life spans for its citizens?” “In a recent Economic Synopses essay, Guillaume Vandenbroucke, an economist and assistant vice president at the St. Louis Fed, examined whether a country’s economic growth is the key…

“While skyrocketing food and energy prices were making headlines, the surge in shipping costs seemed to pass largely under the radar, despite its potential inflationary impact. Our analysis suggests that a doubling of shipping costs causes inflation to increase by roughly 0.7 percentage point. Given the actual increase in global shipping costs during 2021, we…

“We set up a model of banks, the central bank, the payment system, and the surrounding private sector economic environment. It is a structural, choice-theoretic model which is deeply rooted in data. We use the model to conduct a structural counterfactual that introduces a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) which is optionally interest-bearing. The model…