Reports

“According to the May Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), the consensus predicts that headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation will slow further in 2023, but that the decline in core inflation will be slower. The consensus predicts that headline (all items) inflation will slow to 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023 from a…

Overall Economic Activity “Economic activity was little changed overall in April and early May. Four Districts reported small increases in activity, six no change, and two slight to moderate declines. Expectations for future growth deteriorated a little, though contacts still largely expected a further expansion in activity. Consumer expenditures were steady or higher in most…

“The U.S. financial sector is still in the early stages of integrating AI into its operations, so there is much anticipation and conjecture as to what will come next. Bank supervisors, while noting many of the potential pitfalls of banks’ use of AI-based applications, have conveyed optimism about the technology’s potential benefits.”

“How do employment targets affect firm dynamics? What is the relationship between inventor migration, and local productivity and knowledge spillovers? How are surplus gains from inventions distributed? These were among the questions addressed by economists during a recent Richmond Fed research conference.”

“In this post we summarize the main results of our contribution to a recent e-book, “The Making of the European Monetary Union: 30 years since the ERM crisis,” on the economic and financial crises in Europe since 1992-93, and focus on the spillovers of those crises onto the United States and the global economy. We find…

“The model suggests that governments must carefully weigh the longer-term consequences of intervening in the banking sector during crises.” “Bailouts may provide immediate relief, but they come with a trade-off: Although they can boost bank liquidity and output during banking crises, paying for bailouts may also require additional borrowing, thus leading to heightened government default…

“April’s advance monthly retail sales report showed consumer demand expanding to kick off the second quarter of 2023. Total nominal retail sales including food services rose 0.4 percent monthly, following two months of 0.7 percent declines. Even more impressively, “core retail sales” — which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services — rose 0.7…

“Evolution in the value of money – i.e., inflation, or the percentage change in the price level – is a central concern of monetary policy. Accordingly, policymakers at most central banks monitor a range of inflation measures to come to an informed assessment about the underlying inflationary pressures. Over the past decade, increased attention has…

“Did uninsured depositors in the failed Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) need to be saved? The argument is that even though everyone knew that deposits over $250,000 were uninsured, if uninsured depositors had not been made whole, panic would have coursed through the banking system. Large depositors’ withdrawals from other banks would have compromised financial stability.…

“Adverse selection consequently offers an important missing piece to the puzzle of remote work’s rarity prior to Covid-19. Our estimates suggest that adverse selection distorts the decisions of 22 percent of call-center workers who do not choose to be remote because they do not want to pool with less productive types. There is promise that…