Reports

“In this paper we examine workers’ beliefs about their earnings growth and risk of layoff and quitting. While there exists a large body of work on observed earnings and employment volatility, little is known about worker’s perceptions of that variability. Knowledge of such beliefs, and how they evolve over the working life and business cycle…

“We used two novel approaches to estimating the impact of supply disruptions in 2021 on global output and inflation. In all, we estimate that supply shocks weighted negatively on the global recovery and contributed positively to global core inflation. The impact on the level of global GDP ranges from between 0.5 percent and 1.2 percent,…

“From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for January increased 5.4 percent. Prices for goods increased 4.7 percent and prices for services increased 5.7 percent. Food prices increased 11.1 percent and energy prices increased 9.6 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7 percent from one year ago.”…

“The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve), the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) (collectively, the agencies) are issuing this statement on the liquidity risks presented by certain sources of funding from crypto-asset1-related entities, and some effective practices to manage such risks.”…

“Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, occasional work from home was common for some workers. However, with the onset of the pan­demic, many workers were initially forced to work from home. This shift, along with additional investments employers made in technology, has accelerated the trend in work from home. We find that on average, workers in…

“This paper aims to address questions by Fund members on how to respond to the rise of crypto assets and the associated risks. To frame the discussion, the paper defines and classifies crypto assets based on their underlying features and describes their purported benefits and potential risks. The paper presents a policy framework for crypto…

“Over the past year or two, the U.S. has experienced high inflation combined with strong wage growth. For households, the relative strength of these two forces determines whether their cost of living has kept up with their wages.” “The figure demonstrates that the lowest-wage workers experienced some of the highest nominal wage growth rates. For…

“Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the ‘second’ estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.” “The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the ‘advance’ estimate issued last month. In the…

“The surge in wage growth experienced by the U.S. economy over the past two years is showing some tentative signs of moderation. In this post, we take a closer look at the underlying data by estimating a model designed to isolate the persistent component—or trend—of wage growth. Our central finding is that this trend may…