Reports

“The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) experienced a record drop during the early pandemic. While it has since recovered to 62.2% as of December 2022, it was still 1.41 pp below its pre-pandemic peak. This gap is explained mostly by a permanent decline in the LFPR for workers older than 55. This paper argues…

“Together, The CFO Survey and the Richmond Fed surveys of manufacturers and service providers indicate that firms have recently been less likely to take on new capital expenditures and are thus either slowing the pace of existing projects or pushing back the start of pending projects. There is some evidence that recent changes to capital…

“We study the relationship between volatility and liquidity in the market for on-the-run Treasury securities using a novel framework for quantifying price impact. We show that at times of relatively low volatility, marginal trades that go with the ow of existing trades tend to have a smaller price impact than trades that go against the…

“Labor market frictions are basically irrelevant for primary sector workers who make up around 55 percent of the population. These workers are almost always employed and they very rarely experience unemployment. They also seamlessly move from non-participation to employment unlike workers in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The secondary sector, which constitutes 14 percent of…

“Because the Chinese rebound has so far been driven primarily by domestic demand, which tends to be less sensitive to imports, we expect only minor effects on U.S. exporters. As the recovery broadens over time, however, Chinese economic growth could spur global growth, with positive effects on the United States.”

“A decline in the number of people participating in the labor force can have a negative impact on the overall economy.” “According to research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in 2017, a falling LFP rate can slow the growth of GDP, since “fewer people are contributing to the nation’s output of goods and services.” Additionally,…

“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.4 percent … Employment continued to trend up in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance.” “In April, employment continued to trend up in professional and business services (+43,000). Over the prior 6 months,…

“In table 4, the outstanding amount of facility asset purchases for MS Facilities LLC (Main Street Lending Program) reflects the quarterly update to the allowance for loan losses. The allowance for loan losses was estimated based upon the Main Street Lending Program holdings as of March 31, 2023.” “On May 1, 2023, the California Department…

“Because tax receipts through April have been less than the Congressional Budget Office anticipated in February, we now estimate that there is a significantly greater risk that the Treasury will run out of funds in early June. We are providing this information in response to questions from lawmakers about our projections of revenues for the…

“How do you spend the majority of your day? You likely have several options for interacting with friends and family, including social media. In a 2021 Pew survey, 72% of American adults said they use some social media site. Many of these sites are free to use. Why?” “The bottom line is that someone is…