Weekly Reports

Quick Overview The Fed increased the target rate by 25bps last week (to 4.75%). In the post meeting press conference, Jerome Powell talked about “a couple of more rate hikes to get to that level we think is appropriately restrictive”.  Mary Daly doubled down in an interview on Friday saying that the Dec SEP terminal…

Quick Overview Due to the Fed’s communication blackout, no Fed official spoke last week and no research reports were published. Prior to the blackout, four Fed officials went on record supporting a 25bp hike on Feb 1; two others mentioned either a 25bp or 50bp hike and one Fed official (Bullard, of course) supported a…

Quick Overview A near consensus on the terminal rate (currently 5.10%, December’s SEP).  About every Fed official who spoke last week mentioned going above 5.00%.  The next question is how quickly do we get there?  Bullard favors a 50bps hike, most however favor a 25bps hike.  Regarding a recession, Bullard and Waller say the chances…

Fed officials appear to be in full agreement about increasing Fed Funds above 5.00%.  However, a disagreement appears to be growing about how quickly to get there, whether by 25bp increments or more quickly with a 50bp hike.

Overview – Over the next four days of this holiday shortened week, Fed officials are likely to clarify their position on the upcoming rate hike – both 25bps and 50bps are on the table.

Fed: “Research and analysis about consumers, their financial experiences, and the communities in which they live inform Federal Reserve policymaking.” – Fed Board Fed Unfiltered: Each week we’ll read through and outline the most relevant information for your decision-making. This Week: Three reports on inflation – the Cleveland Fed explains how a recession is better…

Overview Too soon to tell whether the Feb 1 rate hike will be 25bps or 50bps – Powell referenced 25bps at his press conference on 12/14/22 – last week, Bostic mentioned being comfortable with either 25bps or 50bps – this week’s CPI report will likely have a great deal of bearing.

Fed: “Research and analysis about consumers, their financial experiences, and the communities in which they live inform Federal Reserve policymaking.” – Fed Board Fed Unfiltered: Each week we’ll read through and outline the most relevant information for your decision-making. This Week: The St. Louis Fed updates its report about the chances of a recession. The…

Overview The next FOMC meeting will be Jan 31/Feb 1 – a 25bps hike is expected – between now and then, four major economic reports will post – Dec’s Jobs, CPI, PCE and Q4’s GDP – unless there’s a dramatic change in inflation, the Fed will likely continue on the current rate hike path leading…