IMF, Report: How We Missed the Inflation Surge: An Anatomy of Post-2020 Inflation Forecast Errors

“This paper analyzes the inflation forecast errors over the period 2021Q1-2022Q3 using forecasts of core and headline inflation from the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook for a large group of advanced and emerging market economies. The findings reveal evidence of forecast bias that worsened initially then subsided towards the end of the sample …”