KC Fed, Report: Will High Underlying Inflation Persist? 

“Our analysis shows that while underlying inflation could ease to near 2 percent sometime next year, its path depends crucially on the evolution of future inflation. We also show that if inflation surprises to the upside and decays more slowly, underlying inflation could converge to approximately 3 percent and risk becoming embedded in the economy. Therefore, the longer inflation stays elevated, the more difficult it may be for the Federal Reserve to reach its mandate of price stability.”