Richmond Fed, Report: Inflation Staying Persistent

“Our findings for headline PCE inflation … suggest that its persistence has fallen slightly from peak but remains near its 20-year high. The most recent data available show that, in the latest quarter of data (the first quarter of 2023), the persistence coefficient dropped from a post-COVID-19 high of 0.71 in the second quarter of 2022 to 0.68 in the first quarter of 2023. Prior to the pandemic, the last time headline PCE inflation persistence was that high was in 1999.”