NY Fed, Report: Inflation Persistence, Dissecting the News in January PCE Data

“This post presents updated estimates of inflation persistence, following the release of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for January 2023. The estimates are obtained by the Multivariate Core Trend (MCT), a model we introduced on Liberty Street Economics last year.” “The current release of the MCT implies a significant upward revision in estimated inflation persistence. The MCT stands at 4.9 percent for the month of January following an increase in December.”