Dallas Fed, Report: Trade diversion has helped ease the impact of the embargo on Russian oil

“The tanker traffic data indicate that the impact of the crude oil embargo on oil prices and on the global economy is likely to be fairly benign in 2023, absent a strong surge in demand. The fact that the $60 price cap on Russian crude—imposed in December 2022 as part of the trade sanction regime—was too high to be binding undoubtedly helped reduce the frictions in the tanker market, as did India’s decision to proceed without Western insurance and Russia’s move to expand its own tanker fleet.”