Fed Unfiltered, Daily Trends: 9/27/22

2-year Treasury, 10-year Treasury, Fed Funds

• The 2yr was up 3bps.  Settling somewhat after a 28bps increase over the last five days.  It’s possible the market is waiting on Thursday’s GDP numbers and Friday’s Core PCE numbers.
• The 10yr was up another 9bps (28bps in two days) – possibly due to the ramped up QT, although with the 10yr it’s difficult to truly know.

Historical

• Historically speaking, rates are still fairly low.  However, we are approching the 5.00% range of 2007, likely to be the upper end of our current run, possibly ending mid to late 2023.

Unemployment, Core PCE, GDP

• This week we’ll see GDP’s 3^rd estimate for Q2 and August’s Core PCE numbers.