James Bullard, Speech: The First Steps Toward Disinflation in the U.S.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard presented “The First Steps Toward Disinflation in the U.S.” (PDF) on Thursday at an event hosted by the Little Rock Regional Chamber. The presentation was an update to versions given June 1 at the Economic Club of Memphis and June 20 in Barcelona.

“Real-time indicators of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth suggest continued expansion in the quarters ahead.”

“U.S. GDP, the total value of goods and services produced domestically, is supposed to equal U.S. GDI, the total value of income earned domestically.”

“However, these two numbers do not match, and this is called a “statistical discrepancy.”

“Because of this discrepancy, these two measures of output provide conflicting views of recent economic conditions: GDP suggests a declining economy, but GDI points to a growing economy.”

“At this point, it appears that the GDI measure is more consistent with observed labor markets, suggesting the economy continues to grow.”